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Showing posts with label predictive. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictive. Show all posts

Sunday, August 19, 2012

Electronic Scores Rank Consumers by Potential Value


The following is an excerpt from an article in 



The New York Times
Sunday, August 19, 2012

Electronic Scores Rank Consumers by Potential Value

By NATASHA SINGER

ST. CLOUD, Minn. AMERICANS are obsessed with their scores. Credit scores, G.P.A.’s, SAT’s, blood pressure and cholesterol levels — you name it.

So here’s a new score to obsess about: the e-score, an online calculation that is assuming an increasingly important, and controversial, role in e-commerce.

These digital scores, known broadly as consumer valuation or buying-power scores, measure our potential value as customers. What’s your e-score? You’ll probably never know. That’s because they are largely invisible to the public. But they are highly valuable to companies that want — or in some cases, don’t want — to have you as their customer.

Online consumer scores are calculated by a handful of start-ups, as well as a few financial services stalwarts, that specialize in the flourishing field of predictive consumer analytics. It is a Google-esque business, one fueled by almost unimaginable amounts of data and powered by complex computer algorithms. The result is a private, digital ranking of American society unlike anything that has come before.

It’s true that credit scores, based on personal credit reports, have been around for decades. And direct marketing companies have long ranked consumers by their socioeconomic status. But e-scores go further. They can take into account facts like occupation, salary and home value to spending on luxury goods or pet food, and do it all with algorithms that their creators say accurately predict spending.

A growing number of companies, including banks, credit and debit card providers, insurers and online educational institutions are using these scores to choose whom to woo on the Web. These scores can determine whether someone is pitched a platinum credit card or a plain one, a full-service cable plan or none at all. They can determine whether a customer is routed promptly to an attentive service agent or relegated to an overflow call center.

Federal regulators and consumer advocates worry that these scores could eventually put some consumers at a disadvantage, particularly those under financial stress. In effect, they say, the scores could create a new subprime class: people who are bypassed by companies online without even knowing it. Financial institutions, in particular, might avoid people with low scores, reducing those people’s access to home loans, credit cards and insurance.

It might seem strange that one innovator in this sphere has blossomed here in St. Cloud, a world away from the hothouse of Silicon Valley. It is called eBureau, and it develops eScores — its name for custom scoring algorithms — to predict whether someone is likely to become a customer or a money-loser. Gordy Meyer, the founder and chief executive, says his system needs less than a second to size up a consumer and to transmit his or her score to an eBureau client.

“It’s like gambling,” Mr. Meyer says. “It’s a game of odds, when to double down and when to pass.”

Every month, eBureau scores about 20 million American adults on behalf of clients like banks, payday lenders and insurers, looking to buy the names of prospective customers. An eBureau spinoff called TruSignal, also located here, scores about 110 million consumers monthly for advertisers seeking select audiences for online ads. Mr. Meyer says eBureau’s clients use the scores to answer basic business questions about their potential audience.

“Are they legitimate?” Mr. Meyer asks. “Are they worth pursuing? Are they worth spending money on?” The scores, he adds, are generated without using federally regulated consumer data and are not used to make credit decisions about consumers. (Using regulated credit data for marketing purposes could run afoul of federal law.)

Such assurances aside, consumer value scores have begun to trouble some federal regulators. One of their worries is that these scores, which have spread quietly through American business, measure individuals against one another, using yardsticks that are essentially secret. Another is that the scores could pigeonhole people, limit their financial choices and channel some into predatory loans, they say.

“The scoring is a tool to enable financial institutions to make decisions about financing based on unconventional methods,” says David Vladeck, the director of the bureau of consumer protection at the Federal Trade Commission. “We are troubled by these practices.”

Federal law governs the use of old-fashioned credit scores. Companies must have a legally permissible purpose before checking consumers’ credit reports and must alert them if they are denied credit or insurance based on information in those reports. But the law does not extend to the new valuation scores because they are derived from nontraditional data and promoted for marketing.

For more, visit www.nytimes.com.

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Adobe Digital Marketinng Suite Tackles Big Data with Predictive Marketing


Adobe Digital Marketing Suite Tackles Big Data with Predictive Marketing
For immediate release
Smarter Suite Helps Digital Marketers Turn Big Data into a Big Opportunity
SALT LAKE CITY, Adobe Digital Marketing Summit — March 21, 2012  Adobe Systems Incorporated(Nasdaq:ADBE) today announced new predictive marketing capabilities within the Adobe® Digital Marketing Suite, reducing the complexity of uncovering hidden behavioral patterns in big data. These advancements will help marketers more quickly sort through an increasing amount of data to find the most impactful insights as well as leverage vast amounts of historical data to predict future results. Adobe is putting predictive analytics and more intelligent, forward-looking decision-making into the hands of digital marketers.
“In the early days of digital marketing, analytics emerged to tell us what happened and, as analytics got better, why it happened.  Then solutions emerged to make it easier to act on data and optimize results,” said Brad Rencher, senior vice president and general manager, Digital Marketing Business, Adobe. “But the sheer amount of available data presents a challenge to quickly extract insights and act while those insights are still valuable. The new predictive capabilities within the Digital Marketing Suite address these challenges and help marketers turn big data into a big opportunity.”
Adobe runs massively parallel software-as-a-service offerings through approximately 23,500 servers and networked devices in 19 data center co-location sites. Adobe captures more than six trillion transactions per year for its 5,000+ digital marketing customers. Collectively, these transactions represent more than 27 petabytes of data.
“Historically all Web analytics have reflected data from the past which has been to a certain extent like driving a car using only the rear view mirror,” said Ken Seiff, executive vice president, Direct and Omni Channel, Brooks Brothers. “The new predictive marketing capabilities from Adobe are helping us forecast revenue and identify the most powerful levers our team can pull to have the most likely positive effect on the site's revenue. These new capabilities are both simple and fast,and for the first time we can be marketers using data in a manner that allows us to drive while facing the road ahead.”
Adobe’s predictive marketing capabilities enable marketers to improve a variety of digital marketing strategies, including personalized engagement, multi-channel campaign execution, and media monetization. Specifically, digital marketers can:
·         Change key metrics in various what-if scenarios to see how those changes will potentially impact business outcomes, such as orders and revenue
·         Forecast campaign results across search, social and display, and develop optimized media mix models, generating higher returns on multi-channel advertising initiatives
·         Identify leading indicators that point to upcoming risks and anomalies and adjust marketing strategies before a problem occurs or to take advantage of an opportunity
·         Identify interactions (leaving a comment, reviewing a product, etc.) with the highest probability to convert
·         Move from testing content to prescribing content based on what the predictive model predicts will be best
The predictive marketing capabilities of the Adobe Digital Marketing Suite are now delivered through the following products and services:
·         The virtual analyst, the predictive modeling engine for the Adobe Digital Marketing Suite, intelligently identifies metrics with anomalies that need further review, forecasts those metrics for up to three weeks, and performs a correlation analysis to find other metrics that contributed to the anomaly
·         The advanced algorithms from the acquisition of Efficient Frontier are used to forecast campaign results and develop optimized media mix models, which may be leveraged to generate higher returns on multi-channel advertising initiatives
·         A predictive marketing dashboard allows marketers to change key metrics in various what-if scenarios to see how those changes will potentially impact business outcomes, such as orders and revenue
Customers interested in these predictive marketing capabilities can contact an Adobe account manager. Virtual analyst is currently in development and expected to be available later this year. All other capabilities are currently available.
About the Adobe Digital Marketing Suite
The Adobe Digital Marketing Suite offers an integrated and open platform for online business optimization, a strategy for using customer insight to drive innovation throughout the business and enhance marketing efficiency. The Suite consists of integrated applications to collect and unleash the power of customer insight to optimize customer acquisition, conversion and retention efforts as well as the creation and distribution of content. For example, using the Suite, marketers can identify the most effective marketing strategies and ad placements as well as create relevant, personalized and consistent customer experiences across digital marketing channels, such as onsite, display, email, social, video and mobile. The Suite enables marketers to make quick adjustments, automate certain customer interactions and better maximize marketing ROI, which, ultimately, can positively impact the bottom line.
About Adobe Systems Incorporated
Adobe is changing the world through digital experiences. For more information, visit www.adobe.com.

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

IBM Introduces New Predictive Analytics Services & Software

IBM Introduces New Predictive Analytics Services and Software to Reduce Fraud, Manage Financial Performance and Deliver Next Best Action

NEW YORK and LONDON - 20 Mar 2012: IBM (NYSE: IBM) today announced new consulting services and software that take the power of predictive analytics to new levels of impact for the highest-priority issues of C-suite decision makers. The new analytic offerings address the emerging opportunities of big data to manage financial operations, decrease fraud and nurture next-generation customer relationships.
Based on experiences drawn from more than 20,000 analytics engagements, the new solutions combine innovations developed by IBM Research with new predictive technologies from dozens of companies IBM has acquired. 
IBM will significantly broaden the group of clients – specifically C-suite leaders – who can adopt analytics, extending IBM's leadership position in the strategic market for business analytics. IDC estimates enterprises will invest more than $120 billion by 2015 to capture the business impact of analytics, across hardware, software and services. 
“These new capabilities target the agendas of global business leaders operating in a world of accelerating complexity, unpredictability and massively available information,” said Bridget van Kralingen, senior vice president, IBM Global Business Services. “By integrating analytics into business processes and converting new insights into action, IBM is helping organizations transform big data from a threat into an opportunity, one that will be their most valuable natural resource.”  
Enterprises across all industries are under increased pressure to extract new insights from theexplosion of available data. To address this imperative, IBM has expanded its multi-billion dollar investment in business analytics to address three vital client issues – fraud detection, financial operations and customer service – and help organizations increase revenues. The IBM Smarter Analytics Signature Solutions include:  
·        IBM Smarter Analytics Signature Solution – Anti-fraud, Waste & AbuseEach year, health care fraud tops $250 billion, according to the FBI. Tax fraud costs billions more. IBM’s adaptive systems learn from the latest data, helping to protect against emerging fraud. The solution embeds advanced algorithms directly into business processes, providing government agencies and insurers with the ability to detect fraud in real time – before funds are paid out. Using sophisticated analytics, the solution recommends the most effective remedy for each case, optimizing an organization’s finite resources. For example, the system might recommend that a simple letter requesting payment be sent to resolve one case, while recommending that a full investigation be opened in another case.

The solution will help clients replicate success stories like Infinity Insurance. One of the nation’s leading “nonstandard” insurance providers, specializing in covering higher-risk drivers. The company is applying IBM analytics to more than 25,000 automobile claims processed monthly in order to identify patterns in historic data. In the first three months, Infinity reduced the time needed to identify fraudulent claims from 14 days to 24 hours. 
·        IBM Smarter Analytics Signature Solution – Next Best ActionAll organizations understand the value of collecting customer data, but many struggle to extract new insight and use it to create more meaningful relationships. IBM’s solution helps organizations gain a comprehensive view of a customer, derived from traditional enterprise data and customer sentiment gleaned from social networks, logged customer service interactions and web click stream data. Then, real-time analytics predicts customer behavior and preferences to inform decisions on the next best action on behalf of that customer.

These capabilities bring together Marketing and Customer Service functions and have helped companies like Sprint, which is using IBM analytics to determine the most effective offers for existing and new customers. 
·        IBM Smarter Analytics Signature Solution – CFO Performance InsightFinancial information is growing at an astounding rate of 70 percent each year, according to IBM research. The industry’s intricate data sets have to be collected and cross-referenced against analyst reports, economic market data, financial reports, news stories, board notes and company balance sheets. IBM’s capabilities provide increased insight, visibility and control over financial performance with predictive capabilities applied to key metrics and data on past performance. The predictive analytics, combined with what-if analysis, and traditional business intelligence in an executive-style dashboard, guides users with root-cause analyses. Organizations can uncover relationships among performance metrics, anticipate performance gaps and assess alternatives with scenario planning.

This kind of improved financial visibility is used by Alfred Angelo, one of the largest U.S. wedding gown manufacturers and retailers. The company is using IBM analytics to move beyond spreadsheets to a more comprehensive view of its operations across product lines. By analyzing which wedding dress styles or accessories have been profitable over time, Alfred Angelo can take the SKU level “investigation” down to a particular color, size, or design and then optimize its inventory to meet client demands and increase revenues.  
IBM works with clients across industries and geographies to apply analytics and gain a competitive advantage from analyzing big data.
“IBM is helping Sprint manage and analyze network data 90 percent faster than before,” said Von McConnell, executive director of the Innovation and Advanced Labs at Sprint. “We can now customize new products and services in real-time and respond instantly to changing market dynamics. The insights we gain from big data allows us to create and deliver new mobile applications in minutes, instead of hours, giving Sprint the ability to stay well ahead of our competitors.”  
Big Data: The New Natural Resource
The new solutions can be delivered by IBM consultants, supported by industry-leading applications management services capabilities, and cloud offerings. Clients can access these capabilities through IBM’s big data technology platform that includes Hadoop, stream computing, data warehouse, and information integration and governance capabilities, along with visualization and discovery, application development, systems management and industry accelerators. To date, the IBM big data platform has been adopted by more than 100 business partners, bringing a new class of analytics solutions to market and extending the reach of IBM analytics offerings for clients. 
Clients can access IBM’s solutions through a global network of eight Analytics Solution Centers. Credit qualified clients can take advantage of financing for services solutions and zero percent loans for IBM software with IBM Global Financing. 
IBM Smarter Analytics
The new analytics services and solutions are part of IBM's larger focus on business analytics and optimization, which spans hardware, software, services and research. IBM projects $16 billion in business analytics revenue by 2015. To meet that target, IBM has established the world’s deepest portfolio of analytics solutions; grown its business and industry expertise to almost 9,000 business analytics and optimization consultants, 400 researchers, and created global analytics solution centers in Berlin, Beijing, Dallas, London, New York, Tokyo, Washington and Zurich. 
IBM has acquired 28 companies to build targeted analytics and information expertise since 2005, and continues to expand its ecosystem, which today consists of more than 27,000 IBM business partners. IBM has also secured hundreds of patents a year in analytics.  
These investments have enabled IBM to develop breakthrough technologies like IBM Watson, a new class of industry specific analytical capability that uses deep content analysis, evidence-based reasoning and natural language processing to identify relationships buried in large volumes of data that can be used to improve decision making. 
For more information about IBM and Analytics visit www.ibm.com
To download the IBM infographic on Big Data: The New Natural Resource visithttp://bit.ly/Gzp4HA
Follow IBM and Analytics & Information on Twitter #smarteranalytics and #ibmbigdata. 
IBM YouTube Analytics Channel: http://www.youtube.com/user/ibmbusinessanalytics.