A Renewed Multilateral Effort to Protect East European Banks

Excerpt from an article in

The New York Times

Thursday, March 15, 2012

A Renewed Multilateral Effort to Protect East European Banks

By JACK EWING FRANKFURT — A group of officials and bankers who helped prevent Eastern Europe from being thrown into the financial crisis in 2009 has reconvened, seeking to avoid a credit squeeze and economic downturn caused by problems at parent banks in Western Europe.

The International Monetary Fund, European Commission, World Bank and other institutions this week formally revived an effort known as the Vienna Initiative, which three years ago succeeded in preventing panicked West European banks from draining capital from their subsidiaries in Eastern Europe.

Vienna Initiative 2.0, as it has been named, is concentrating on ensuring that national regulators do not work at cross purposes, inadvertently provoking a flight of capital as banks respond to pressure to reduce risk.

The first Vienna Initiative “was based on voluntary commitment by banks,” said Otilia Simkova, an analyst at the consulting firm Eurasia Group in London. “Now it seems everything is focusing on regulators.”

Banks in the euro area supply 80 percent of the foreign lending in emerging Europe, which includes countries like Poland and Hungary as well as Turkey. That means problems among euro area banks can quickly spread east.

In fact, West European banks drained $35 billion from the region in the third quarter of 2011, according to figures published this week by the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland.

A shortage of credit would undercut economic growth at a time when countries like Romania are still recovering from the last crisis.

Next Time, Greece May Need New Tactics

Excerpt from an article in

The New York Times

Saturday, March 10, 2012

Next Time, Greece May Need New Tactics

By LANDON THOMAS Jr.

LONDON The Greek government was able to legally strong-arm most of its private bondholders into accepting the debt reduction deal it completed Friday. But next time — and experts predict there will almost certainly be a next time — Greece might have much less leverage.

That’s because as a result of Friday’s deal, the bulk of Athens’s 260.2 billion euros ($341 billion) in remaining government debt will now be held by the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the individual European nations that have lent Greece money and contributed to the region’s bailout fund.

Politically, Greece would be hard-pressed to force debt losses on such a formidable international group, the way it did with the private banks and hedge funds that have just been forced to accept a 75 percent loss on their Greek bond holdings. Greece’s main creditors, in effect, are now foreign taxpayers — who are likely to be much less malleable than the private creditors if Greece needs to renegotiate its staggering debt load a year or two down the road.

“From now on, whatever happens in Greece, it will be a matter between Greece and the taxpayers of the rest of the euro area,” said Jacob F. Kirkegaard, an analyst at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

The final private creditor deal announced Friday was agreed to by nearly 86 percent of the bondholders; the number was expected to rise to 95 percent after Athens invoked a so-called collective action clause forcing others to join in. Without such a deal, Greece had strongly implied, it might default altogether, with no one getting paid. The outcome has enabled Greece to reduce its debt load by just over 100 billion euros, or about $132 billion.

Later in the day, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association ruled that the agreement was nonetheless a technical default by Greece — a ruling that will mean payouts on some insurance contracts, known as credit-default swaps, that various investors had taken out on the privately held Greek debt. Around $70 billion in default swaps on that debt are outstanding, although analysts expect the net payout to end up at only $3.2 billion or so.