Investors in Health Care Seem to Bet on Incumbent

The following is an excerpt from an article in 

The New York Times
Tuesday, August 21, 2012

Investors in Health Care Seem to Bet on Incumbent

By ANDREW ROSS SORKIN

Who is going to win the presidential election?

You might want to ask Mark T. Bertolini. He just bet $5.7 billion on President Obama.

Mr. Bertolini is the chief executive of Aetna, which on Monday agreed to acquire Coventry Health Care, a huge provider of Medicare and Medicaid programs. His $5.7 billion bet makes a lot of sense if you believe that the Affordable Care Act - otherwise known as Obamacare - will not be repealed.

Mitt Romney has pledged to repeal the act "on my first day if elected," so any gamble that Obamacare stays intact could be fairly described as a wager that President Obama will remain in office.

At a time when so many in the business community appear to be supporting Mr. Romney, it is telling that some businessmen and investors expect a different result - and are wagering more than rhetoric; they are staking their wallet on it.

It may be counterintuitive, but with the Standard & Poor's 500 up 9.5 percent in the last three months and the stock market over all at its highest point since the financial crisis, there is an argument to be made that investors writ large may be helping the incumbent to win. Intrade, an online market that allows investors to bet on political outcomes and other world events, shows that President Obama is favored to win, 57.3 percent to 42 percent.

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